I gotta say, I don’t remember the last time I was so excited to see an NCAA final not involving a team I root for. Game is at 9:21 ET. Preview is here. All the stats paint this as pretty much dead even, with a score in the 70’s. That’s how I see it, too, but with a slight edge to Florida. But Greg Oden is SUCH a wild card. He could play 19 minutes in a relatively easy Florida win, or he could play 35 minutes and lead OSU to a mild upset.

Merry Christmas!

[These are just summaries. More in depth analysis can be found in the linked previews.]

Saturday, 6:07 PM: Ohio St. vs. Georgetown

This should be an offensive, evenly matched game. OSU’s Greg Oden has been possibly the most influential player in the tournament (when he hasn’t been sitting due to fouls), but this is the first time he’s played against someone his own size. Oden will likely pick up some fouls, and while he rides the pine Georgetown can dominate down low offensively. When he’s in, Georgetown will shoot more 3’s, so will need to maintain their good shooting touch. Ohio State, on offense, will shoot worse than Georgetown, but turn the ball over less, and get more offensive boards than usual. In the end this may come down to how much time Oden spends on the court. I like Georgetown to advance, but Bret (who wrote most of our preview) seems to favor Ohio State, and sees a possible big day from Othello Hunter.

• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68
• In depth analysis and updated graphs/stats

Saturday, 8:47 PM: Florida vs. UCLA

This rematch of last year’s title game pits a UCLA defense that has absolutely suffocated every tournament foe so far versus a Florida offense that has the best balanced attack in the country. Florida will get few unchallenged shots, but should do a better job of taking advantage of them than any previous UCLA foes. On defense, Florida doesn’t foul much, and rebounds well, but UCLA’s offense succeeds without relying too much on those factors, so the Bruins should be OK. They won’t turn the ball over as much as Florida, but those extra possessions will be balanced by fewer second chances from offensive rebounding. UCLA struggles to score on their own sometimes, while Florida will only struggle if UCLA’s defense forces them to, so the lower the score of this game, the better it is for UCLA. In the end, UCLA can’t shut down EVERY aspect of the Florida offense, and the Gators have the balance to take whatever UCLA is giving them. That should be the difference.

• Trendline Prediction … Florida 61, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 63, Florida 57
• In depth analysis and updated graphs/stats